On the basis of the 2011 election results, none of the seats were in any doubt. In each case, the outgoing MP had won with more than 50% of the vote. Each was what pundits like to call ‘a safe seat.’

The Green Party looked at Calgary Centre right away. The Alberta provincial election had exposed a split among Conservative voters. Stephen Harper and his Alberta MPs had been pretty transparent in promoting the Wild Rose Party and its leader Danielle Smith. It might have been wise for Harper’s team to be less exuberant about the prospects of a majority Wild Rose government in Alberta based on polls—polls which turned out to be spectacularly wrong. Lee Richardson is an old school, decent, Progressive Conservative. (I have known him since the 1980s when he was in Mulroney’s PMO and lent a hand in creating Gwaii Haanas National Park). It was shocking when he announced his departure in the House and every party rose in turn to pay tribute to his long record of service—except the Conservatives. When I was at the Calgary Stampede, for the first time, people would say ‘I am an Alison Redford Conservative; not a Stephen Harper Conservative.’ Greens had always done relatively well in Calgary Centre, with a high of 17% of the vote in 2008. So we had something of a base and only needed a great candidate. When nationally renowned author Chris Turner agreed to seek the Green Party nomination (after a lot of soul-searching, as he had never imagined himself in politics), we decided we were all in to try to win a seat in Stephen Harper’s backyard.

It was a shock when Denise resigned. Unlike the Calgary Centre nomination, where no one in media wondered how the Green Party would do, within hours the local media was full of speculation. The usual media ‘conventional wisdom’ decided that Victoria was a test for the Green Party and for me. Unlike Calgary, where we hoped for a surprise upset, suddenly in Victoria we had no choice but to run a really serious campaign. We had never done so before because Denise was such a strong MP. Even Greens voted for her. But now, if we didn’t make a serious effort to at least significantly improve our vote, we would be judged harshly.

When one of my oldest friends, Donald Galloway, agreed to run (another wonderful person who had never imagined running for office), we began to get organized in Victoria as well. In Durham, Green candidate Virginia Ervin ran a great campaign, but we could not see any likelihood of the Conservative grip on that riding slipping at all. So we did not emphasize the Durham by-election.

Now that the dust has settled, it is clear we made good choices in deciding to run hard in both Calgary and Victoria. Where the previous winning candidates had won with over 50% of the vote, in the by-election, the races became very close. In both cases, they were squeakers. In Calgary, it turned into a three-way race, with only a ten-point spread between the winner Conservative Joan Crockatt and Green candidate Chris Turner.

Liberals, who came in second, have spoken bitterly of the Green vote ‘splitting’ their vote. As Chris Turner pointed out in a column in the Globe and Mail, the first poll gave the Liberal 30% of the vote and Chris Turner 8%. By election day, the Greens had over 25% of the vote and the Liberal candidate 32%. So it is hard to make a claim we took votes from the Liberal column. Chris believes he engaged people who otherwise would not have voted at all.

Victoria was a lot closer. In fact, the majority of the votes cast on November 26 were for Donald Galloway. It was the votes cast in Advance Polls that gave the win to a very strong candidate (and another old friend of mine) new NDP MP Murray Rankin.

Some pundits have said this shows that Thomas Mulcair is not as popular as the late Jack Layton, to explain the difference between NDP votes in 2011 and 2012. I doubt there is much in that. I think that a lot of the votes in 2011 were not NDP votes at all. They were Denise Savoie votes. With the chance to look at all the candidates, Donald Galloway really impressed. Especially for those who attended the all-candidates debates, Donald won people over by being the most impressive in a field of good candidates. Economist Paul Summerville had been an NDPcandidate in Ontario and ran a one-issue campaign (which I regret as it allowed media to ignore important issues like climate, and parliamentary democracy and fracking and so on). Dale Gann was as good a candidate as the Conservatives could ever hope to have. He runs the Vancouver Island Technology Centre, is progressive and articulate.

The real story here is the collapse of the Conservative vote. Having come in second in 2011 in Victoria with 23% of the vote, the Conservative vote dropped to third place and a poor one at that, with 14% of the vote. The Liberals were just behind in fourth place. My belief is that the Conservative vote was torpedoed way before Denise resigned. It evaporated in the wake of nasty partisan swipes at anyone in BC who opposes supertankers full of bitumen crude. Epithets of ‘radicals’ and ‘against Canada’ and ‘foreign-funded’ opponents of the national interest turned off Conservatives in droves. If I were a Conservative MP in BC, these results would make me very nervous.

And that is very good news indeed. I keep working to stop the ratification of the Canada-China Investment Treaty where our only hope lies now in Conservative MPs pressuring the Prime Minister. Conservative MPs know their voters want them to reject the treaty—or face their wrath at the polls.

Something seems to be getting through. Lately, Stephen Harper’s messaging around Enbridge’s Northern Gateway project has started to re-align to reality. I can see the ground shifting, such that even the Prime Minister may walk away from that one. (However, with Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline twinning coming onstream, I do not want to declare any premature victories for fear of losing the energy of the campaign to prevent supertankers on our coast.)

The by-elections have been a boost for the Green Party. It is wonderful to see such a large rise in the Green vote overall. And, yes, I do wish I had another Green MP to help me with the work I am doing in Parliament and to represent the people of Victoria, not just deliver partisan messages disseminated from the leader’s office. Donald Galloway was a superb candidate and, like Chris Turner, I hope they will take the Green banner forward again in the future.

My goal now is to work to get the Liberals and New Democrats to agree to cooperation in the next election. We need to develop a one-time pact to cooperate, and then after one election, get rid of first-past-the post elections for good.

The post What to make of the federal by-elections? appeared first on Elizabeth May.

I can’t and won’t explain or defend the $16 orange juice or the limo, but why people focus on that and not the fact that every single day Stephen Harper moves within Ottawa with a motorcade of two black sedans (front and rear) with three smoky-glassed, bullet proof SUVs in between – FIVE vehicles – is beyond me. The reality of our outrage levels are such that $16 orange juice grabs headlines and $20 million a year on the PM’s personal security (more than double previous PMs) rolls right by without notice. It’s the way people freak out over a few pennies increase on a litre of gasoline, but, without a whimper, purchase completely unnecessary bottled water at a higher price per litre than gas. It’s just one of those human nature things that defy rational explanation.

Where I think we need to give our collective head a shake (and here I am looking directly at the national news media reporters) is the forgery of the KAIROS approval documents. The story line from the mainstream press seems to be that Stephen Harper has been putting up with a Minister who makes mistakes and gets into trouble. The inserted “NOT” in the KAIROS document gets remembered as a mistake by Oda for which Stephen Harper defended her.

I wrote the following column in February 2011 for a local community paper, Island Tides.

Please read it to refresh our collective memory. The very most logical conclusion of the train of events is that Bev Oda approved KAIROS funding and someone higher up, someone in the Prime Minister’s Office being the most likely suspect, ordered the Minister’s approval be reversed – resulting in the crude forgery. Harper has not been covering for Oda. She was covering for him. And, in true form, he just threw her under the bus.

KAIROS — a scandal that matters

Scandals in “Harperland” (as Globe and Mail columnist Lawrence Martin has dubbed current day Ottawa) are increasingly disturbing. The mystery of why the aid group KAIROS was denied CIDA funding – and how critical documents were forged — is now occupying the Speaker of the House, Parliamentary committees, and a fair amount of media ink. The fact that it happened at all is an outrage.

“Kairos” is a Greek word with a number of meanings, all related to time. In its theological meaning, it suggests the appointed time. It suggests opportunity within crisis. It is a moment that is critical.

Nearly all the major Christian denominations in Canada are core groups in KAIROS — the United Church, Anglican, Catholic, Lutheran, Society of Friends, and more. Back in my Sierra Club days, I had the pleasure of working closely with KAIROS. We were partners in climate work and advocating for social justice in international trade deals. The group has a superb record.

It was a shock when, in late November 2009, after thirty five years of CIDA support, CIDA funding for KAIROS projects overseas was cancelled. KAIROS had been expecting a $7 million grant for the next five years of its work. The Green Party issued a press release within days of the loss of funding (December 3, 2009), calling for CIDA support to be restored. Political interference seemed likely, as through its climate work, KAIROS had been critical of the oil sands. There were protests across Canada, including in Ganges where Salt Spring Island clergy and multi-faith parishes held a protest, calling for KAIROS funding to be restored.

In the House, throughout late 2009 and into 2010, International Development Minister, Bev Oda, denied that there were any political motivations. She stated that the programmes no longer fit CIDA’s current priorities.

It was even more shocking when the minister for Immigration, Jason Kenney, claimed that the reason KAIROS had been denied expected continued support for its programs was that the group was anti-Semitic and anti-Israel. Kenney made the charge in a speech delivered two weeks after the funding was cut at the Global Forum for Combating Anti-Semitism in Jerusalem (December 16, 2009). KAIROS reacted quickly, proving it had no involvement in Israeli boycott campaigns.

Anyone tracking this issue now had two Cabinet ministers (three if you count Oda’s Parliamentary Secretary Jim Abbott) with very different stories. Oda (and Abbott) claiming it was routine CIDA decision-making; Kenney claiming a clamp-down on anti-Semitic, anti-Israel groups.

In late October 2010, an Access to Information request revealed the CIDA documentation. CIDA had recommended that the $7 million be approved. Senior CIDA officials, first V-P Naresh Singh, and then President Margaret Biggs, had signed off on the advice to the Minister to approve the funding. Her signature appeared on the document, but inserted crudely, with a hand-drawn carrot, was the word “NOT” (in capitals.). CIDA officials had signed a document approving funding. Testifying to the parliamentary committee investigating the matter, Minister Oda told the committee she had no idea how the word “NOT” was inserted.

Thanks to Liberal MP, John MacKay, the Speaker of the House was asked to investigate the whole mess. His findings were released February 10th. Speaker Milliken found that the document was “doctored” and that it raised “disturbing questions:”

“Any reasonable person confronted with what appears to have transpired would necessarily be extremely concerned, if not shocked, and might well begin to doubt the integrity of certain decision-making processes.”

Now, Minister Oda has changed her story. She now claims the document was changed at her direction, although she still does not know who did it.

Of course, the Opposition members of the Committee have pointed out that she misled the Committee. NDP MP Paul Dewar says the minister lied to the Committee when she said she had no idea how the “NOT” appeared.

None of this washes. If the Minister did not want to fund KAIROS, the solution was easy enough. There are a number of tried and true ministerial responses to advice they don’t like (even when the advice is solid, as the CIDA approval of KAIROS). Send the unsigned document back downstairs to CIDA officials, leave it on the desk to gather dust, ignore it.

The only plausible explanation for the state of the document is that Bev Oda signed the approval and the “NOT” was inserted subsequently.

This is where long-standing attacks against KAIROS from Harper Cabinet members, Stockwell Day and Jason Kenney, as well as right-wing Christian lobbyist Charles McVety, are highly relevant. In particular, Jason Kenney’s speech in Israel and its timing seem pivotal. People like right-wing Evangelical leader Charles McVety, of the Canada Family Action Coalition, was a KAIROS detractor. Targeting KAIROS for the speech in Jerusalem would explain PMO interference. Someone, and I am willing to bet, not someone directed by Oda, inserted the “NOT” after funding was approved.

We now have a case of fraud. It is part of a pattern of abuse of the essence of Canadian democracy and our foundational principles of “peace, order and good government.” The victims of this fraud are not just in Canada. They are the people in developing world whose projects were not supported. In a larger sense, we are all victims of this fraud. Will it be like so many other abuses of power, of contempt for Canada’s historical record in the world of peace-keeping and development assistance, that are just swept under the rug? Or will this be a moment of “kairos” that allows Canadians to wake up to the crisis and seize the opportunity to fully explore this act of fraud and forgery.

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