One reader reminded me last week of Toyama and the other cities destroyed in that dreadful first week of August. Conventional fire-bombing, aimed at demonstrating the new technology of the B-29 bombers, destroyed Toyama and many other cities in Japan.

“In total, 8,000 sorties dropped roughly 54,000 tons of incendiary bombs on 66 cities, killing (by conservative estimates) about 180,000 people. The attacks burned 76 square miles of urban Japan to the ground.”  NPR August 1, 2020

So, yes, we remember Hiroshima and Nagasaki today – and yes, we must commit to nuclear disarmament and press Canada to sign and ratify the U.N. Treaty to Prohibit Nuclear Weapons.  But we must also remember Toyama and so many other cities….And we really do not need new fighter jets.

To other news, the climate emergency continues apace.  Flooding, tornadoes, fires, including the heat wave and fires in Siberia, loiter at the edge of our consciousness amid the non-stop COVID news.     The July 24th Sunday New York Times Magazine was entirely devoted to the unparalleled threat of mass human migration. The NYT sets out the threat and the reality of climate refugees. By 2050, from sea level rise alone, 150 million people could be displaced.

This week came truly terrifying news:

“The last fully intact ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic has collapsed, losing more than 40% of its area in just two days at the end of July, researchers said on Thursday.” Reuters Aug 6, 2020

The Milne ice shelf on the edge of Ellesmere Island was larger than Manhattan. I have actually been to Ellesmere Island.  Back in 1986, I had only just started my job as senior policy advisor for the federal minister of environment when I pushed the final negotiations to completion to create Ellesmere Island National Park Reserve – now known as Quttinirpaaq National Park.   And then I had to organize a September signing on Ellesmere itself, as (properly) demanded by the NWT minister, Tagak Curley.  Curley went on to play a key role in achieving territorial status for Nunavut. But September was a bit of a risky time for three Twin Otters to fly ministers and media, tables, chairs and flags to Tanquery Fjord. The deal, in English, French and Inuktitut, was signed just 750 km from the North Pole.  I got a real education on the details and risks as the weight load per plane had to include survival gear in case the weather shifted and we got stuck there.

I regard that fleeting experience on Canada’s most northern extreme as one of the great privileges of my life.  I saw herds of muskox running across the snow and one cheeky Arctic fox peered at us from a distance.

And now it is falling apart.  An ice shelf – our last fully intact ice shelf – has been felled by global warming.  To my surprise, the Friday night television news on CTV and Global featured this event, but CBC- “The National” did not mention it.

Impacts of loss of Arctic ice are felt around the world.  The ice that forms on the water surface has been thick enough to support hunters and polar bears for millions of years.  It is generally referred to as “multi-year ice.” The reflective power of the surface ice creates the albedo effect.  The white ice bounces much of the sun’s radiative heat back out to the atmosphere.

It has been one of the more famous “surprises” for climate scientists that the positive feedback loop from melting Arctic ice has so dramatically increased the speed at which ice is lost.  When the ice melts, dark ocean water is revealed. It does the opposite of the albedo effect; it sucks up the sun’s heat thus heating ocean water faster and leading to more ice melt.

An ice shelf, such as the Milne Shelf that just fell apart, forms along the edges of a land mass, but is also primarily surface ice. The ice shelves form from where glaciers run down a coastline.  They can be enormous, as was Milne, but they are also floating. (Exploring the Environment – Ice Shelves).

So it is important to remember that when we lose an ice shelf, or experience loss of surface ice in ice caps, sea level rise is not impacted.  Just as when you have a glass of ice tea filled with ice cubes, as they melt, the drink does not spill over the edge.  The loss of any floating ice still has serious knock on effects – loss of the albedo effect and, because the ice releases fresh water, there is a serious impact on ocean currents.  The fresh water sits on top of the heavier salty water and has the effect of depressing currents.  Loss of Arctic ice has contributed to slowing the Gulf Stream, with serious impacts to climate globally.  One reason that the Gulf of St. Lawrence is so threatened is that the Labrador Current which used to bring colder oxygenated water into the productive gulf has been increasingly displaced by warmer de-oxygenated water from the Gulf Stream.  What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.

Ice sheets are different. Two key “tipping points” that must be avoided would be losing the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet or the Greenland Ice Sheet.  Because ice sheets sit in land, if they are lost, dislodging their mass to the sea, does impact sea level rise.  According to the global consortium called the GRACE project (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite system), loss of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet could result in 8 meter sea level rise for Canada.  One of GRACE’s principle researchers, Dr. Richard Peltier from the Physics Department at University of Toronto, explained it to me as being like the effect of water sloshing in a bathtub. A large displacement of water at the South Pole will slosh more water to our shores, than if the relatively nearby Greenland Ice Sheet was dislodged into the ocean.  To avoid these tipping points, it is critical to keep global average temperature at no more than 1.5 degrees C (the Paris target).

All our estimates for sea level rise, including the one from the Sunday Times of 150 million people displaced, are based on a much less drastic scenario in which sea level rises due to water expansion. Warmer water takes up more room than colder water- so those estimates of sea level rise hold to around 1-1.5 meters rise. An 8 meter rise, or if both ice sheet losses occur a 16 meter rise, is not in current calculations.

Sorry if this seems a depressing Good Sunday Morning!  The good news is that if we act decisively and stop using fossil fuels as quickly as possible, we can hang on to no more than a 1.5 degrees C global average temperature increase.  It will not be easy, but it is totally do-able.  We just have to take climate science as seriously as we take COVID science.

And since this was a lot of information to absorb all at once, take that glass with all the ice – skip the ice tea – and (once the sun is past the yardarm) have something stronger!

Stay well! Stay safe!

Love and thanks,

Elizabeth

P.S.

Just in case you missed it, federal Greens called this week for stopping construction of Site C.

We also called for Environment Minister Wilkinson to reject the Roberts Bank Terminal 2 project.

Saanich-Gulf Islands Greens

This weekly newsletter is published by Elizabeth’s EDA in Saanich-Gulf Islands. You can sign up for it here.

The post Good Sunday Morning – August 9 appeared first on Elizabeth May.

On September 26, we tabled before this House a Canada-China nuclear safety agreement, which will not come before this House for debate but which is related to this issue of nuclear safety.

I am very concerned that the agreement is not sufficient for Canada to meet the terms of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty in the sale of Canadian uranium to Chinese facilities. Under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, we must be able to verify at all times that Canadian uranium will not go to nuclear weapons. A one-page promise from China, to me, does not meet the terms of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

I wonder if my colleagues from the official opposition share those concerns.

Françoise Boivin: Mr. Speaker, we do indeed share these kinds of concerns. However, I would like to suggest that my colleague wait until I give my speech on Bill S-9 this afternoon. I do not want to give her a scoop because it is against my principles.

Right now, we are talking about Bill S-7, and Bill S-9 will be debated this afternoon. We do in fact have concerns about it, and we will see how all that plays out in Bill S-9.

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“We must take time to remember and acknowledge the horrendous suffering and destruction that resulted from the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and take action to make nuclear disarmament a reality,” said Green Party of Canada Leader Elizabeth May.

More than 100,000 people were killed instantly on those terrible days and survivors have been left to deal with the aftermath of the radiation, still being felt today.

The Green Party of Canada has a long standing policy calling for global nuclear disarmament. We recognize an urgent need for global nuclear disarmament and the conversion of military industries in Canada and worldwide into peaceful and restorative industries.

The post August 6th is Hiroshima Day appeared first on Elizabeth May.

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As a party to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, we are required to verifiably ensure that no Canadian uranium ends up in nuclear weapons.

My question is: How will we do this, what reporting requirements exist and what was relaxed?

Hon. John Baird: Mr. Speaker, let me assure the House that Canada strongly supports the international convention and all of our legal obligations on nuclear non-proliferation.

The agreement we have with China is consistent with all of those agreements and ensures that appropriate safeguards are in place. This agreement will also help create badly needed jobs in Canada, and just as importantly will help China generate non-emission electricity, which will lead to less pollution and better air quality for people in China. We are very proud to play a part in that.

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In this light, are we not concerned that our new trading partner, Sinopec in China, which is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, is undermining the sanctions?

Hon. John Baird: Mr. Speaker, we are tremendously concerned about three things going on in Iran. Obviously the enrichment and the IEA report of its nuclear activities cause all of us substantial concern.

We are concerned about the deteriorating human rights record of the Iranian regime, and that is why Canada has led efforts at the United Nations to bring light to this huge problem. We are also concerned by the intervention that Iran takes in neighbouring countries supporting international terrorism.

We will work to take every diplomatic effort necessary, in concert with our allies and others, to ensure that Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons.

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Last week the European Union announced a boycott of Iranian oil, delayed until July, to pressure the Iranian regime over its disputed nuclear program.  The Iranian government has in turn threatened to disrupt oil tanker shipping from the Gulf through the Straits of Hormuz in the event of economic restrictions on its own oil exports.  The United States government has indicated it would militarily oppose such an action.  At the same time, Asian nations that import 75% of Iranian oil exports are resisting joining the boycott for either economic reasons or because they consider the boycott counter-productive.

“This kind of brinkmanship diplomacy is more likely to build resentment and solidarity among the Iranian people and strengthen the hand of the government,” added Green International Affairs Critic Eric Walton. “If Iranian authorities are being honest with their own citizens and the international community about their nuclear program – and we should start with the good faith assumption that they are – they will suffer no financial penalty on oil exports.”

Combined with this pragmatic shift in tactics would be an agreement to address Iranian regional security concerns and commence Regional Nuclear Arms Reduction talks with neighbouring nations already possessing nuclear weapons, including Pakistan, India, Russia, China,  and Israel.

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