Good Sunday Morning!
I rarely make a prediction–in writing–about politics- especially in the volatile times we are in! But today is an exception. I am close to 100% sure that a week from today – March 23 – our new Prime Minister, the Right Honourable Mark Carney, will stroll over to Rideau Hall to ask the Governor General to call an election.
Why Sunday March 23? Because on January 6, when Justin Trudeau announced he would resign as soon as a new leader for the Liberal Party was chosen, he asked the GG to prorogue Parliament until March 24. The Liberal Party made its own decision to select the new leader by March 9. If you ask me, this was an odd choice, rushing through their leadership race and leaving a new Liberal leader with only 25 days until the House resumed normal business. At that point both the NDP and Bloc leaders were saying they would vote to bring down the government as soon as possible–hardly normal times! It would be a pretty tricky path for any new Liberal leader and freshly minted PM to navigate. But for a new leader, now Prime Minister without a seat in the House of Commons, it is beyond tricky. Carney cannot risk a single indelible memory, or much retweeted YouTube of Pierre Poilievre in his place, saying “Mr. Speaker, my question is to the Prime Minister…Oh right! He is not allowed in the Chamber!”
If I am right and the election is called next Sunday, that would put voting day on either April 28 or (slightly less likely) May 5. Friday, March 14, Carney was sworn in as PM along with a much smaller Cabinet than the one Justin Trudeau chaired until Friday. Some well-known faces are back in key roles. Chrystia Freeland in Transportation, Anita Anand for science, innovation and Industry, Francois Phillippe Champagne for Finance, Melanie Joly in the same post, Global Affairs, and Dominic Leblanc for Intergovernmental relations. Many of Trudeau’s Cabinet are gone and do not plan to run again. I was surprised that Karina Gould, whom I have always found competent and caring, and the only Jewish contender in the leadership race, did not get any role in the new Cabinet. No other real surprises but personally sad to lose Marc Miller, Jean Yves Duclos and Mark Holland. No surprise, but still a disappointing sign of the times, his first act was to scrap the consumer-based carbon tax. Carney will keep the carbon price on large polluters. In the absence of details of what may replace the system that was put in place nation-wide, I will hold back the outrage, but please know it is there. The same day BC NDP Premier Eby scrapped our BC carbon tax, at long last fulfilling the 2009 BC NDP slogan – “Axe the Tax!”, The BC NDP, to its eternal shame, tried to win the 2009 election condemning a nearly perfect carbon pricing system put in place by former “Liberal” but right-wing premier Gordon Campbell. Few may remember that Campbell became convinced of the threat posed by burning fossil fuels when BC experienced Canada’s first multi-billion economic loss – the pine beetle outbreak that wiped out the interior lodge pole pine forest- an area twice the size of Sweden. Without the usual check on the infestation- a minus 30 degree cold snap during a BC winter, nothing stopped it in its voracious path. It has hopped over usual barriers and is now in the boreal forest. Between insect infestations and forest fires it has been a couple of decades since Canada’s forests were a net carbon sink. They are now a net source of carbon.
Speaking of climate, former Greenpeace Climate campaigner, Steven Guilbeault is no longer minister for Environment and Climate Change but was not booted out of Cabinet altogether. He is now minister for Heritage and, part of his old portfolio, minister for Parks. My hunch is that Carney did not keep Guilbeault for his (now tarnished) Eco-credentials but to try to build the Liberals’ Quebec support. He is now the Quebec Lieutenant to Carney. The new Minister for Environment and Climate Change is Terry Duguid, a Winnipeg Liberal. Terry and I have known each other for decades through work on the board of the Winnipeg-based International Institute for Sustainable Development.
I am worried about this election on a couple of levels. Of course, locally I hope to win and retain my seat as MP for Saanich-Gulf Islands. What I find worrying is the number of queries I have received from voters who write that they have supported me for years but think this time they may have to “vote strategically” and support Mark Carney. Please help me explain to people that Mark Carney is not on the ballot in SGI. And that the race here is a straight-up two-way race between Greens and Conservatives. The NDP candidate Colin Plant pretends he does not know this. Every vote for a Liberal or NDP candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands is basically helping Pierre Poilievre. We are in a Westminster Parliamentary democracy. Choices for MP are made district by district. Our perverse voting system, First Past the Post, undermines individual belief that votes makes a difference. But every vote will count! The notion of so-called “strategic voting” is always worrying. It is essentially “fear-based” voting and there is nothing strategic about it.
The other level of my worry is more consequential. Ever since the US election in November 2024 and Trump’s incessant threats against Canada, we have been able, as national and provincial leaders to stand united. Of course, some are more convincing than others but all federal party leaders have met nearly once a month to commit to “Team Canada”. Provincial premiers have also (for the most part) stuck to the message that as a country Canada is united. We will not panic. We will not be cowed, and we will not back down!
Staying united is critical. With Trump and his social media billionaire henchmen as adversaries, we must not be divided. Trump is prone to strategies of Divide and Conquer. The divisions have begun. Nasty Conservative attack ads against Carney and nasty Liberal attack ads against Poilievre. Of course there are. We are days from an election but this is a huge risk in our national campaign for unity against Trump’s administration.
On Tuesday March 11, Jonathan Pedneault and I held a press conference to call for another meeting between all party leaders. Where former PM Trudeau had convened us, now Carney must convene one last pre-campaign meeting of Conservative, Bloc, NDP, Liberal and Green leaders to see if we can agree to maintaining an inner Team Canada during the election campaign. What we proposed is that Carney could establish a multi-party “war cabinet.” This was what both Mackenzie King and Winston Church did in the Second World War. The inner cabinet, of opposition and government members, dealt only with the war, while government cabinet members ran the country. But they were not facing an election.
We could agree to create an inner multi-party group that could avoid one of the pitfalls of an election campaign, We must be able to respond to whatever Trump hurls at us. In an election, by convention, the government of the day is restricted to “caretaker” functions only. That is too risky with the rogue White House on the loose. We could pull this off, but only if we meet and discuss it before writ drop.
As you can imagine, I am trying to reach anyone in Carney’s inner circle. We still have time to keep Canada united against threats emanating from the White House– even as we duke it out on the hustings trying to win seats for our party. Canada’s “leaders” need to show leadership that says “Country First. Party second!” It is what we must do…but will we?
I do hope you will join us if you are near Sidney for our St. Patrick’s Day office opening party! It’s from 6 pm to 8 pm at 9776 Fourth Street in Sidney, (not far south of the Tanners corner). Please RSVP if you are coming, we want to be sure we have enough space and food!
On the 18th I will be off on the Campaign Trail for Mike Morrice’s campaign launch in Kitchener Centre on the 19th!
Wherever you live in Canada, please contact your local Green team and offer help. My campaign needs volunteers to join me door knocking and sign waving!!!
Unlike any election I have ever been in, we have to fight on several fronts at once- against the threats from the US President, and to protect social programmes and demand climate action in Canada. All hands on deck!!
We can do this and emerge a stronger and more self-reliant country.
In next week’s letter I want to share more details on the Green Party plan to get us through multiple crises. We can. And we must.
Much love and hope to see you soon!
Elizabeth
P.S. Last I checked, the Green Party has 200 nominated candidates!! More than the Liberals or NDP!! Our team is working hard to have a full slate – 343 candidates! Please offer to help collect signatures for our candidates, especially if you suspect you live in an area where Greens are thin on the ground!! Thanks!!
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Saanich-Gulf Islands Greens
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